A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
